Social Security: A good deal? It depends.

by:  Tom Libertiny

A friend posted a link to an article with the title:  “When Soda Was a Nickel and Social Security Wasn’t Much More.” The premise to the author’s article is that Social Security is a bad deal for a variety of reasons. But their analysis very much simplifies the complex calculations of Social Security and reviews one particular case: A high wage earner who is single. The link to the article is at the end of this one.

What about the rest of us and what assumptions are made for that single, high wage earner?

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The Results: Investing Prior to, During and After the 2008 US Election

by:  Tom Libertiny

On 2008 July 18 we wrote an article for Business Week’s “Business Exchange” about predicting the stock market prior to, during and after U.S. elections.  Here are the final results for the year after President Obama was elected (2009).

Here’s What We Said on 2008 July 18

Around this time every US election cycle you start hearing words like “the stock market always goes up after an election” or “the start market always goes down after an election.” As we’ve all suspected, it’s a bit more complicated than that. These “rules of thumb” don’t really apply in their generality, but you can make some strategic plans on when you likely should be in the market and when would be a good time to sit out of the market if you are a low risk investor.

Our final conclusions?  Read on…

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Cost to Run a Hydrogen Car: Response to Business Week article

by:  Tom Libertiny

A 2009 September 22 article in Business Week by Jack Ewing goes on to explain that “Advances in fuel-cell technology and a commitment from the German government to build a fueling network mean automakers haven’t given up on hydrogen.” That may be true, but toward the end of his article, the question of operating costs for the user (at least the cost for fuel) finally comes up.

According to Business Week: “And the cost of generating an hour of electricity with a hydrogen fuel cell has recently dropped more than 20%, to $78.  A drop to $30 is possible by 2015, which would make hydrogen competitive with gasoline.”

Competitive with gasoline on a cost basis? Not according to their own figures. Here’s why:

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Affordable Health Care for Everyone in America: John Mackey vs ObamaCare

by:  Tom Libertiny

I remember reading the original Wall Street Journal article on 2009 August 11 by John Mackey, CEO of Whole Foods entitled “The Whole Foods Alternative to ObamaCare.”  A link to the article is at the bottom of this article.

I agree with some of Mackey’s “eight reforms” and some I don’t agree with. But the clear takeaway I had from his article and the plans being prepared by our government is simple: No one either understands or admits to understanding the root cause of high health care cost and insurance. And without a clear understanding, how can anyone create what is essentially a new business–call it the American Healthcare for Everyone Company (or not-for-profit or government agency).

What investor would invest in a company or become a customer of it when the various folks and organizations suggesting ideas for solving the problem don’t understand the actual problem?

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Review of: Free, the Future of a Radical Price by Chris Anderson

by:  Tom Libertiny

On the one hand, I feel horrible writing this because I understand first-hand how much time and effort it takes to write anything from a blog, to a magazine article to a book.  On the other hand I’m never going to get the time back that I spent reading this book.  Being a fan of Wired magazine I set the bar high and waited with anticipation until Chris Anderson (Wired’s editor) released his new book “Free, the Future of a Radical Price.”

The bar I set was far too high.

Chris Anderson is a gifted writer in the new-web-economy sense of confusing the generation of lists with actual analysis.  The content of the first 240 pages (hardback book edition) are familiar to anyone who has followed the history of both technology, economics and business for the last few decades.  Good summaries are freely available with much more detail and some actual analysis at the free www.wikipedia.org website.  For those who haven’t followed the history or prefer a briefing, consider purchasing his book when it comes out in paperback or via Amazon’s Kindle. Perhaps this is the intended audience for the majority of Chris book.

Where is the value in this book?

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